Pulse Asia’s February 2009 Nationwide Survey on the May 2010 Elections

12 03 2009

Pulse Asia is pleased to share with you some findings on the May 2010 Elections from the February 2009 Ulat ng Bayan national survey. We request you to assist us in informing the public by disseminating this information.

The survey fieldwork was conducted from February 2 to 15, 2009 using face-to-face interviews. In the period prior to and during the conduct of this survey, the news headlines focused on the alleged bribery of several officials from the Department of Justice (DOJ) and Philippine Drug Enforcement Agency (PDEA) in relation to a drug case; the reported bid rigging behind road projects in the country being funded by the World Bank (WB); the planned automation of the May 2010 elections; the revival of congressional discussions on constitutional amendments; controversies involving the Supreme Court including the aborted plan to file impeachment charges against Chief Justice Reynato Puno; the closure of some companies and the laying off of workers both here and abroad; the Arroyo administration’s efforts to create jobs and provide assistance to laid off workers; and, the US Presidential election and the inauguration of President Barack Obama.

As in our previous surveys, this nationwide survey is based on a sample of 1,200 representative adults 18 years old and above. It has a ± 3% error margin at the 95% confidence level.  Subnational estimates for each of the geographic areas covered in the survey (i.e., Metro Manila, the rest of Luzon, Visayas and Mindanao) have a ± 6% error margin, also at 95% confidence level. Those interested in further technical details concerning the survey’s questionnaire and sampling design may request Pulse Asia in writing for fuller details, including copies of the pre-tested questions actually used.

Pulse Asia’s pool of academic fellows takes full responsibility for the design and conduct of the survey, as well as for analyses it makes based on the survey data. In keeping with our academic nature, no religious, political, economic, or partisan group influenced any of these processes.  Pulse Asia undertakes Ulat ng Bayan surveys on its own without any party singularly commissioning the research effort.

For any clarification or questions, kindly contact Ronald D. Holmes, Pulse Asia President at 09189335497 or Dr. Ana Maria Tabunda, Pulse Asia Chief Research Fellow at 09189436816.

Most Filipinos are convinced the May 2010 elections will be held as scheduled and believe that there will be much trouble in the country if the elections are not held

For 65% of Filipinos, there is a big possibility that the next elections will push through according to schedule – a sentiment shared by small to big majorities (55% to 76%) across geographic areas and socio-economic classes. About one in ten (13%) believes otherwise and 22% are undecided on the matter. Between October 2008 and February 2009, the overall level of indecision declines (-8 percentage points) while there is a slight increase (+6 percentage points) in the percentage of Filipinos expecting the next elections to be held as scheduled (See Table 1).

A bare majority of Filipinos (51%) is of the opinion that the postponement or cancellation of the May 2010 elections will cause much trouble in the country.  This is a view articulated by small majorities (51% to 56%) across all geographic areas and socio-economic classes, with the exception of Mindanao where this sentiment is expressed by a big plurality (44%).  On the other hand, 27% of Filipinos do not believe that much trouble will ensue if the May 2010 elections are not held while 21% are ambivalent on the matter.  The only notable movement in the overall figures between October 2008 and February 2009 is the 8-percentage point drop in the level of indecision on the matter (See Table 1).

No clear winner would emerge in the presidential race if the May 2010 elections were held today

If the May 2010 elections were conducted now, it would be a very close race with four probable candidates enjoying nearly the same overall voter preferences. These are Vice-President Noli L. de Castro (19%), Senator Francis G. Escudero (17%), former President Joseph Estrada (16%), and Senator Manuel B. Villar, Jr. (15%). In addition to these four individuals, Senator Loren Legarda also scores a double-digit overall voter preference (12%). The other personalities included in Pulse Asia’s presidential probe obtain single-digit overall voter preferences – Senator Manuel A. Roxas II (8%), Senator Panfilo M. Lacson (6%), Makati City Mayor Jejomar Binay (2%), and Metropolitan Manila Development Authority (MMDA) Chairperson Bayani Fernando (1%). But while Filipinos continue to be divided in their choice for the country’s next president, virtually all of them have a favored presidential candidate with less than one in ten (4%) not expressing support for any of the nine individuals included in this survey’s presidential probe (See Table 2).

Across geographic areas and socio-economic classes, Senator Escudero is the preferred presidential bet in Metro Manila (27%) and the best-off Class ABC (23%) while in the Visayas, Senator Villar has an edge (25%) over the others. In Mindanao and the poorest Class E, Vice-President de Castro (24% and 19%, respectively) and former President Estrada (23% and 20%, respectively) enjoy almost the same level of electoral support. Those in the rest of Luzon are almost equally supportive of the presidential bids of Vice-President de Castro (19%), Senator Escudero (17%), ex-President Estrada (17%), Senator Legarda (15%), and Senator Villar (14%). In the most numerous Class D, Vice-President de Castro (20%) has a slight lead over the other probable candidates (See Table 2).

The overall figures recorded in February 2009 do not differ significantly from those posted in October 2008 with whatever changes being recorded during this period (-2 to +2 percentage points) clearly falling within the survey’s margin of error (+/- 3 percentage points) (See Table 3).

The vice-presidential race continues to be a two-way contest between Senators Francis Escudero and Loren Legarda

While 26% of Filipinos would vote for Senator Escudero as vice-president if the May 2010 elections were held today, 22% would support the candidacy of Senator Legarda.  These two legislators enjoy nearly the same levels of electoral support in the rest of Luzon (25% versus 23%), the Visayas (28% versus 23%), Mindanao (21% versus 19%), Class D (25% versus 23%), and Class E (22% versus 24%).  However, Senator Escudero has an edge over Senator Legarda in Metro Manila (30% versus 22%) and Class ABC (36% versus 14%) (See Table 4).

The only other personality who scores a double-digit vice-presidential voter preference is Vice-President de Castro (14%).  The other probable candidates included in the vice-presidential probe register voter preferences of 8% or less.  A negligible percentage of Filipinos (3%) does not have a favored vice-presidential candidate at the moment (See Table 4).

Between October 2008 and February 2009, Senator Escudero enjoys a slight improvement in his overall voter preference (+5 percentage points).  During this period, the other probable vice-presidential candidates included in the survey do not register any notable movements – positive or negative – in their respective voter preferences (See Table 5).

Public interest in the May 2010 senatorial elections remains high; 16 of the 65 personalities included in the senatorial probe have a statistical chance of winning if the elections were conducted now

With a little over a year to go before the May 2010 elections, Filipinos continue to express much interest in the next electoral exercise as they name a mean of ten and a median of 12 (out of a maximum of 12) of their preferred senatorial candidates.  Across all of the survey’s sub-groupings, mean figures range from nine to ten names while a median figure of 12 is recorded in every geographic area and socio-demographic grouping (See Table 6).

Out of the 65 personalities whose senatorial voter preferences are probed in this survey, 16 have a statistical chance of winning if the May 2010 elections were held today.  Virtually all Filipinos have at least one preferred senatorial candidate.  Currently leading the senatorial race is Senator Jinggoy Estrada whose overall voter preference (52.8%) puts him anywhere from 1st to 3rd places.  In 1st to 4th places are Senator Pia S. Cayetano (48.8%) and Senator Manuel A. Roxas II (48.8%).  Senator Miriam Defensor-Santiago’s re-election bid receives the support of 47.0% of Filipinos and gives her a statistical ranking of 2nd to 5th places.  Finding himself in 4th to 7th places is former Senate President Franklin M. Drilon (42.7%) (See Table 7a and 7b).

Senator Jamby A.S. Madrigal would be re-elected by 38.8% of Filipinos while Senator Ramon Revilla, Jr. would win another senatorial term with the support of 37.8% of Filipinos.  Both legislators are ranked from 5th to 11th places.  Sharing the 6th to the 12th spots are Atty. Aquilino L. Pimentel (36.1%), National Economic and Development Authority (NEDA) Director-General Ralph G. Recto (35.5%), former Senator Sergio Osmeña III (33.8%), and Optical Media Board (OMB) Chairperson Edu Manzano (33.4%).  Dangerous Drugs Board (DDB) Chairperson Vicente C. Sotto III is in 8th to 16th places with 31.2% backing his return to the Senate.  Completing the list of probable winners are Ms. Korina Sanchez (28.0%), Senate President Juan Ponce Enrile (27.6%), Makati City Mayor Jejomar Binay (27.2%), and Senator Richard Gordon (26.9%) – all landing in 12th to 16th places (See Table 7a and 7b).

Between October 2008 and February 2009, OMB Chairperson Manzano enjoys a significant improvement in his overall voter preference (+19.6 percentage points).  The only other personality who registers a higher voter preference this quarter relative to October 2008 is Senator Estrada (+7.7 percentage points).  During this period, there are no significant gains or erosions in the voter preferences of those candidates with a statistical chance of winning in the senatorial race (See Table 8a and 8b).

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3 responses

13 03 2009
C0Y

I hope next years election will be better. I’m not hoping it would run smoothly because I am certain that it never will, lalo na ngayon that we will be using the automated system. It’s suppose to be for the better, and yes it will make it better, but maybe not in the Philippines. Masyadong magulo kasi dito.

I’m expecting a lot of recounts this coming election. I hope well have a better one next year.

Famous Filipinos

24 07 2009
girl pee accident

hmm… good one..

21 01 2010
Mayor Ramon Guico

Well, I’m just hope for a clean and safe election this 2010. And who ever wins as the race for presidency, I wish he/she can change our country from its current state. Thanks for sharing this post. I am well informed. Keep posting!

-pia-

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